The Global Economy
- The global economy continues to show remarkable resilience, and the European Commission has revised its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards. For the Eurozone, it estimates GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
- Oil prices continued their downward trend in October, reaching their lowest levels since April 2021.
The Spanish economy
- In line with CEOE, the European Commission, the Government and the Funcas Panel increased GDP growth forecasts to 2.9% in 2025. A slowdown is still foreseen for 2026.
- Slight moderation in GDP and employment in Q3 of 2025, in line with expectations. The strength of domestic demand is confirmed: private consumption and investment are the main drivers of the economy.
- Slight slowdown in job creation and increase in the unemployment rate in Q3, although Social Security registrations remained strong at the beginning of Q4.
- Productivity per employed person continued to decline in Q3, while productivity per hour worked posted a slight increase. Meanwhile, labour costs continue to rise significantly and spiked up.
- Inflation rose to 3.1%, driven by energy and unprocessed food prices, although a slowdown is expected towards the end of the year.
- Defence spending has begun to increase, according to budget execution data.
- The Government approved a record-high spending ceiling of 216.177 billion for 2026 and projects a fiscal deficit of –2.1% of GDP for next year.